Sport betting and Statiscics
It's all about variance.
What does financial mathematics have to do with it, and what is the value of this example for a bettor?
It is this insidious regularity that can easily destroy the game bank with improper management and the allocation of too much money for 22 bet app. A bad streak of even five minuses in a row will nullify your account if you allow yourself to make one bet on 20 percent of your bankroll. Therefore, it is extremely important to risk no more than 1-2% at a given rate. It is also necessary to understand that betting is a long-term investment, not a quick income. With a small number of concluded deals due to variance, even an experienced and successful bettor can be in the red, and a beginner can catch a streak of victories and think of himself as a guru in betting. But only the distance will show who is who. To clarify the situation about your abilities in this area, a sample of 500, or better 1000 bets, will help.
MONTE CARLO METHOD
The mathematics in betting is not just about finding valuable offers. There are also some supportive ways to increase your chances of success. The first of these is the Monte Carlo method, developed in the last century by Stanislav Ulam. The principle of this technique is to obtain a set of results that directly depend on the initial data. Any input parameter that cannot be set accurately is represented as a large number of options. After processing, as a result, we get a set of all possible outcomes with the corresponding probabilities.
For clarity, let's take as an illustration a hypothetical situation in the Spanish football championship, where Barcelona, Real and Valencia are fighting for the championship - see details here 22 bet download . Until the end of the championship 7 rounds, the club from Barcelona is the leader, the Valencians are the second, the Madrid are the third. You want to know what are the chances of Valencia for gold medals. Again, mathematics will help us in sports betting. The Monte Carlo method will compile all possible results for the remaining rounds. The better and more extensive the input data - information about the form of teams, individual skill of performers, injuries of key players, and so on, the more accurate the result will be. All parameters can be written in the form of proportions. Let's say the situation with lineups and injuries can be expressed as 1: 2: 3. That is, the first team plays with the optimal set of players and is given an advantage, while the third has suffered significantly from various damages. Having generated all the possible options, we find out the approximate chances of the Valencians in first place.
Read more in Wikipedia: Probability Theory